For the last decade, the NFL has taught us that nothing is guaranteed heading into a season. Only in the National Football League can the Miami Dolphins bounce back from a community embarrassing 1-15 season in 2007 to knocking off the Patriots for the AFC East crown in 2008. Of course, the parody goes both ways as the Jacksonville Jaguars displayed last season; posting a 5-11 record just one year removed from falling a game short of the Super Bowl the year before. The thing about the NFL is that teams are constantly adjusting from year to year.
Unlike the other major sports where teams are in rebuild mode or have a three to five year window for contention, every team has a chance to win from week to week providing an opportunity for a playoff run. While a team can lack experience, the phrase "too young" should never be used to describe an NFL team. The requirement for players to spend at least three seasons at the college level leads to men entering the league just before their athletic prime. This provides teams who had an off year with the best athletes available in the draft to revamp for the next season (2008 Jaguars). So with all that being said... I don't see too much change from last season to this one.
So which fan-base gets to say there team is this year’s Dolphins? Who is going to suffer and put up with last year’s Jaguars? (Hey the Lions don’t have a chance to be either) With that, I present the first ever Mike’s pREEDictions
AFC East
New England Patriots 12-4
I’m pretty certain this is how Bill Parcell’s preseason speech to this years Dolphins went: "Number 12 in New England is back. Last year means absolutely nothing. I’ll be on the treadmill. Pennington, get me a Dove bar." I cannot confirm the first part but what is true is this team won 11 games last season WITHOUT the leagues best player. A trip to Indianapolis aside, New England has a weak road schedule including December games in the cool climates of Miami and Houston.
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Look for the Dolphins to stay in many games throughout the season, but end up on the wrong end more often than not. Whereas last season’s schedule provided late season match-ups with Oakland, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Kansas City, this season provides Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Carolina. While last season was not a mirage, the Dolphins will come back down to earth this season but continue heading in the right direction.
Buffalo Bills 4-12
Just 10 days before the season is set to begin they fire there offensive coordinator. 4 days after came the release of starting left tackle Langston Walker. Oh yeah and that Terrell Owens guy now collects his paychecks in upstate New York. So things aren’t going smooth in the Bills locker room, unfortunately a weak offensive line and Trent Edwards under center won’t turn the mood around any time soon.
New York Jets 4-12
A first year head coach and a rookie quarterback who failed to win the big games while surrounded by the best talent in the country in college should lead to a transition year in the meadowlands. Bart Scott brings veteran leadership to an already above average defense. But the NFL is a quarterback driven league, and should Mark Sanchez stumble at any point this season the offense would then be in the hands of Kellen Clemens. J-E-T-S 2010-10-10!!!
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Pittsburgh heads into a title defending season with a roster that was virtually untouched in the off season. Add the fact that the Steelers ended up with the 4th easiest strength of schedule and a repeat in the steel city could be very likely. The Steelers only have 2 road games after Thanksgiving. Look for a strong push to close the season
Baltimore Ravens 9-7
Rex Ryan departs as coordinator of a quickly aging defense (Ray Lewis, Samari Rolle, and Ed Reed all over 30). 2nd year quarterback Joe Flacco is going to need Todd Heap to get back to his form of a couple years ago to provide a weapon over the middle. How much can be expected of Derrick Mason at this point? Age aside, there is enough talent on this team to win more games than they’ll lose, especially with a home schedule that provides Detroit, Kansas City, and Denver.
Cleveland Browns 8-8
Brady Quinn is finally given control of the Cleveland offense in Eric Mangini’s first season in the championship starved city. The offensive line is finally coming together entering the Brown’s 10th season since returning. Look for rookie James Davis out of Clemson to turn a lot of heads and take over the starting job from Jamal Lewis by the end of the season. A mediocre defense will keep the Brownies just short of a playoff trip but they will make many improvements in 2009.
Cincinnati 5-11
As a Steelers fan, I can’t help but feel guilty by pointing out that Carson Palmer has not been the same person since having his knee mangled by Kimo von Oelhoffen in 2006 (only 7 games with over 300 yards passing since). Leveranues Coles and Chris Henry do not replace T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Peyton Manning is running out of time to become a multiple Super Bowl champion. With that being said, this years schedule provides as good a chance as the Colts have had since the championship season of 2006. Anthony Gonzalez needs to step up and become a solid #2 target for Manning after the departure of Marvin Harrison. The real question regarding this team’s success is the defense, specifically stopping the run. Should they fail, the 33 year old Manning will need his most productive season yet in a Hall of Fame career.
Houston Texans 9-7
This team will have the most explosive offense in the NFL in 2009. Look for a breakout season from Steve Slaton which will provide protection for QB Matt Schaub. The Texans are bringing back a starting offensive line that has been together for two full seasons. How many today are questioning the Houston front office for selecting Mario Williams over Vince Young and Reggie Bush?
Tennessee Titans 7-9
Kerry Collins should only serve as a band-aid for a temporary QB issue. At 36 years old how much can be expected of Collins? It certainly shouldn’t be to lead this team back to the playoffs. Chris Johnson and LenDale White should take some pressure off the veteran QB, but is there enough receiving threats for opposing defenses to not force Collins to win the game?
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
After this season, every fan in Jacksonville will be calling for Sam Bradford to be their next QB. David Garrard will prove this season that he cannot carry an NFL team through an entire season. This team will go as far as Maurice Jones-Drew takes them, but like Tennessee there are not enough deep play weapons to force opponents to not play to stop the run.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers 9-7
For the second season in a row, the Chargers will make the playoffs because they are the coolest guy at Shenanigans. Phillip Rivers is what Brett Favre was a decade ago, but he has the play makers around him to make this style work. The road schedule is brutal with games at the Steelers, Giants, and Cowboys but, again, they play the Raiders and Chiefs four times.
Denver Broncos 5-11
Kyle Orton takes over an offense whose best receiver is holding out, demanding a trade. The success of the offense could be hinged on undersized rookie running back Knowshon Moreno. 1st year coach Josh McDaniels clearly isn’t worried about making any friends at Mile High Stadium, in what could be a one year coaching experiment.
Oakland Raiders 4-12
They got Richard Seymour! Darren McFadden might be good! As long as JaMarcus Russell and Al Davis are associated with the Black Hole this team is not winning more than 6 games a year.
Kansas City 3-13
Does Larry Johnson care about professional football anymore? Matt Cassel will never repeat last season’s performance, ever. With this supporting cast, I can guarantee it won’t be happening soon. The AFC West will be football’s equivalent of the AL league Central in 2009.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 13-3
Donovan McNabb will finally silence the majority of his hometown critics in 2009. The offense is loaded with ways to move the ball down the field. The loss of Brian Dawkins should only hurt in the locker room as Asante Samuel becomes the leader of the Philly secondary. LeSean McCoy is my pick for offensive rookie of the year (and its pretty cool that he’s got 4 capital letters in his name).
New York Giants 11-5
Osi Umenyiora returns to an already solid defense. Eli Manning will feel the loss of Plaxico Burress but the diverse rushing attack provides enough protection for Peyton’s little brother. Any chance the NFC east isn’t the best division in football this year?
Washinton Redskins 10-6
The Redskins have been one the games best defenses for the last five seasons and have nothing to show for it. Albert Haynesworth will be the player that gets the ‘skins over the hump and back to the post season. Jason Campbell has a lot of doubters to prove wrong this season and with Chris Cooley, Santana Moss, and Clinton Portis all in the prime of their careers he has the talent around him to do it.
Dallas Cowboys 7-9
Say what you will about how T.O. is a distraction with every team he plays for, but those teams always get worse after he departs. I love Felix Jones and Marion Barber sharing carries for the 2nd season but I don’t see them and Jason Witten being enough to lead this team in the rugged NFC East.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Except for a trip to Pittsburgh in December, the NFL gave the Pack a very generous road schedule. You thought Aaron Rodgers had a lot to prove last season? Now he gets to go head-to-head with his predecessor, TWICE! Rookie B.J. Raji joins what could be the best young defense in the NFC, look at that linebacker corps and all their potential.
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Well Mr. Favre, you got your wish. Unfortunately for you, the opponents on your schedule are too physical for you to continue the consecutive games streak and remain productive. The Vikings were an average to an above average team who had the best running back in the game last year. At this point in your career, you do not have what it takes to bring any team to that next level. Let me know what it’s like to get booed by the people who loved everything you did for 16 years.
Chicago Bears 6-10
The Bears open up at Green Bay, home versus Pittsburgh, and at Seattle. By then they could very well be 0-3 and lose faith in Jay Cutler. Has there ever been more made over a QB who has done nothing in his career? Does Brian Urlacher have enough left in him to lead a defense that needs to hold its opponents to under 20 points a game to make up for a mediocre offense?
Detroit Lions 3-13
I’m usually against teams starting rookie quarterbacks, but what other reasons do Detroit fans have to get to Ford Field? The biggest transaction made by the Lions was the firing of Matt Millen. They still have a way to go, but there is no way they could play as bad as last season.
NFC South
New Orleans 10-6
The argument could be made that Drew Brees this generation’s less glamorous Dan Marino. He puts up stats that match up with the best in the league, but has never had the defense to put his team over the top and win a championship. That being said, this could be the year Brees gets back to competing for the NFC championship.
Carolina Panthers 8-8
Julius Peppers returns to a dominant defense, albeit reluctantly. The two-headed rushing attack of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams enters it’s second season and the more you can keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands the better. Only the Dolphins have a harder strength of schedule than the Panthers which should keep them out of the playoffs, and could end the John Fox/Jake Delhomme era in Charlotte.
Atlanta Falcons 6-10
Congratulations on the Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan. Because of your great performance in year #1, the boys in the schedule making department provided you with road trips to New England, Dallas, and New York twice. Sophomore slumps happen to the best, not the elite, but the best. Nobody would be shocked in Michael Turner and yourself come back down to earth this year. Michael Vick comes to his old town December 6th, have him show you some of his old stomping grounds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13
Why was John Grueden fired again? Either way, Byron Leftwich gets a 2nd chance to start for an NFL team. Rookie Josh Freeman can expect to take over by December when Tampa is long out of contention. Sabby Piscatelli and Aqib Talib headline a young defense that will see plenty of action this year.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 9-7
T.J. Houshmandzadeh joins Deon Branch and Nate Burleson as receivers brought in to provide a deep play threat for Matt Hasselbeck. Aaron Curry (rookie, Wake Forest) joins Lofa Tatupu on a defense that will bring Seattle back to the top of the NFC West. Seattle plays in one of the few stadiums that still provides a home field advantage. With foes such as Tampa, Detroit, and Jacksonville coming to the Pacific northwest, Seattle should use this advantage to have them playing in January.
Arizona 7-9
Since 2002, only two teams who lost the Super Bowl won a playoff game the next season. A young team like Arizona could take a step backwards this year before they get back to the pinnacle of the sport. It should be interesting to see if Matt Leinart is given a chance to start at some point in this season, because Kurt Warner can’t be expected to lead this team too far into the future.
St. Louis Rams 5-11
Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson could provide enough offense to pull a couple upsets and stay competitive. However this defense lacks the skill and experience needed to win enough games, even in a winnable division.
San Francisco 49ers 2-14
The NFL is in fact a quarterback driven league. Some how Shaun Hill ended up in the driver’s seat in San Francisco. Rookie Michael Crabtree is the only first round draft pick yet to sign a contract, leaving the 49ers with Arnaz Battle as their big play receiver. Frank Gore could run for over 1200 yards on the worst team in the league.
Super Bowl Picks
Pittsburgh has the only defense that can slow Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC. If the Eagles secure home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs I love their chances of making it to Miami in February.
This is Donovan McNabb’s year. Not only will he win the league’s MVP award but he will bring Philadelphia their first Super Bowl title.
Unlike the other major sports where teams are in rebuild mode or have a three to five year window for contention, every team has a chance to win from week to week providing an opportunity for a playoff run. While a team can lack experience, the phrase "too young" should never be used to describe an NFL team. The requirement for players to spend at least three seasons at the college level leads to men entering the league just before their athletic prime. This provides teams who had an off year with the best athletes available in the draft to revamp for the next season (2008 Jaguars). So with all that being said... I don't see too much change from last season to this one.
So which fan-base gets to say there team is this year’s Dolphins? Who is going to suffer and put up with last year’s Jaguars? (Hey the Lions don’t have a chance to be either) With that, I present the first ever Mike’s pREEDictions
AFC East
New England Patriots 12-4
I’m pretty certain this is how Bill Parcell’s preseason speech to this years Dolphins went: "Number 12 in New England is back. Last year means absolutely nothing. I’ll be on the treadmill. Pennington, get me a Dove bar." I cannot confirm the first part but what is true is this team won 11 games last season WITHOUT the leagues best player. A trip to Indianapolis aside, New England has a weak road schedule including December games in the cool climates of Miami and Houston.
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Look for the Dolphins to stay in many games throughout the season, but end up on the wrong end more often than not. Whereas last season’s schedule provided late season match-ups with Oakland, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Kansas City, this season provides Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Carolina. While last season was not a mirage, the Dolphins will come back down to earth this season but continue heading in the right direction.
Buffalo Bills 4-12
Just 10 days before the season is set to begin they fire there offensive coordinator. 4 days after came the release of starting left tackle Langston Walker. Oh yeah and that Terrell Owens guy now collects his paychecks in upstate New York. So things aren’t going smooth in the Bills locker room, unfortunately a weak offensive line and Trent Edwards under center won’t turn the mood around any time soon.
New York Jets 4-12
A first year head coach and a rookie quarterback who failed to win the big games while surrounded by the best talent in the country in college should lead to a transition year in the meadowlands. Bart Scott brings veteran leadership to an already above average defense. But the NFL is a quarterback driven league, and should Mark Sanchez stumble at any point this season the offense would then be in the hands of Kellen Clemens. J-E-T-S 2010-10-10!!!
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Pittsburgh heads into a title defending season with a roster that was virtually untouched in the off season. Add the fact that the Steelers ended up with the 4th easiest strength of schedule and a repeat in the steel city could be very likely. The Steelers only have 2 road games after Thanksgiving. Look for a strong push to close the season
Baltimore Ravens 9-7
Rex Ryan departs as coordinator of a quickly aging defense (Ray Lewis, Samari Rolle, and Ed Reed all over 30). 2nd year quarterback Joe Flacco is going to need Todd Heap to get back to his form of a couple years ago to provide a weapon over the middle. How much can be expected of Derrick Mason at this point? Age aside, there is enough talent on this team to win more games than they’ll lose, especially with a home schedule that provides Detroit, Kansas City, and Denver.
Cleveland Browns 8-8
Brady Quinn is finally given control of the Cleveland offense in Eric Mangini’s first season in the championship starved city. The offensive line is finally coming together entering the Brown’s 10th season since returning. Look for rookie James Davis out of Clemson to turn a lot of heads and take over the starting job from Jamal Lewis by the end of the season. A mediocre defense will keep the Brownies just short of a playoff trip but they will make many improvements in 2009.
Cincinnati 5-11
As a Steelers fan, I can’t help but feel guilty by pointing out that Carson Palmer has not been the same person since having his knee mangled by Kimo von Oelhoffen in 2006 (only 7 games with over 300 yards passing since). Leveranues Coles and Chris Henry do not replace T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Peyton Manning is running out of time to become a multiple Super Bowl champion. With that being said, this years schedule provides as good a chance as the Colts have had since the championship season of 2006. Anthony Gonzalez needs to step up and become a solid #2 target for Manning after the departure of Marvin Harrison. The real question regarding this team’s success is the defense, specifically stopping the run. Should they fail, the 33 year old Manning will need his most productive season yet in a Hall of Fame career.
Houston Texans 9-7
This team will have the most explosive offense in the NFL in 2009. Look for a breakout season from Steve Slaton which will provide protection for QB Matt Schaub. The Texans are bringing back a starting offensive line that has been together for two full seasons. How many today are questioning the Houston front office for selecting Mario Williams over Vince Young and Reggie Bush?
Tennessee Titans 7-9
Kerry Collins should only serve as a band-aid for a temporary QB issue. At 36 years old how much can be expected of Collins? It certainly shouldn’t be to lead this team back to the playoffs. Chris Johnson and LenDale White should take some pressure off the veteran QB, but is there enough receiving threats for opposing defenses to not force Collins to win the game?
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
After this season, every fan in Jacksonville will be calling for Sam Bradford to be their next QB. David Garrard will prove this season that he cannot carry an NFL team through an entire season. This team will go as far as Maurice Jones-Drew takes them, but like Tennessee there are not enough deep play weapons to force opponents to not play to stop the run.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers 9-7
For the second season in a row, the Chargers will make the playoffs because they are the coolest guy at Shenanigans. Phillip Rivers is what Brett Favre was a decade ago, but he has the play makers around him to make this style work. The road schedule is brutal with games at the Steelers, Giants, and Cowboys but, again, they play the Raiders and Chiefs four times.
Denver Broncos 5-11
Kyle Orton takes over an offense whose best receiver is holding out, demanding a trade. The success of the offense could be hinged on undersized rookie running back Knowshon Moreno. 1st year coach Josh McDaniels clearly isn’t worried about making any friends at Mile High Stadium, in what could be a one year coaching experiment.
Oakland Raiders 4-12
They got Richard Seymour! Darren McFadden might be good! As long as JaMarcus Russell and Al Davis are associated with the Black Hole this team is not winning more than 6 games a year.
Kansas City 3-13
Does Larry Johnson care about professional football anymore? Matt Cassel will never repeat last season’s performance, ever. With this supporting cast, I can guarantee it won’t be happening soon. The AFC West will be football’s equivalent of the AL league Central in 2009.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 13-3
Donovan McNabb will finally silence the majority of his hometown critics in 2009. The offense is loaded with ways to move the ball down the field. The loss of Brian Dawkins should only hurt in the locker room as Asante Samuel becomes the leader of the Philly secondary. LeSean McCoy is my pick for offensive rookie of the year (and its pretty cool that he’s got 4 capital letters in his name).
New York Giants 11-5
Osi Umenyiora returns to an already solid defense. Eli Manning will feel the loss of Plaxico Burress but the diverse rushing attack provides enough protection for Peyton’s little brother. Any chance the NFC east isn’t the best division in football this year?
Washinton Redskins 10-6
The Redskins have been one the games best defenses for the last five seasons and have nothing to show for it. Albert Haynesworth will be the player that gets the ‘skins over the hump and back to the post season. Jason Campbell has a lot of doubters to prove wrong this season and with Chris Cooley, Santana Moss, and Clinton Portis all in the prime of their careers he has the talent around him to do it.
Dallas Cowboys 7-9
Say what you will about how T.O. is a distraction with every team he plays for, but those teams always get worse after he departs. I love Felix Jones and Marion Barber sharing carries for the 2nd season but I don’t see them and Jason Witten being enough to lead this team in the rugged NFC East.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Except for a trip to Pittsburgh in December, the NFL gave the Pack a very generous road schedule. You thought Aaron Rodgers had a lot to prove last season? Now he gets to go head-to-head with his predecessor, TWICE! Rookie B.J. Raji joins what could be the best young defense in the NFC, look at that linebacker corps and all their potential.
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Well Mr. Favre, you got your wish. Unfortunately for you, the opponents on your schedule are too physical for you to continue the consecutive games streak and remain productive. The Vikings were an average to an above average team who had the best running back in the game last year. At this point in your career, you do not have what it takes to bring any team to that next level. Let me know what it’s like to get booed by the people who loved everything you did for 16 years.
Chicago Bears 6-10
The Bears open up at Green Bay, home versus Pittsburgh, and at Seattle. By then they could very well be 0-3 and lose faith in Jay Cutler. Has there ever been more made over a QB who has done nothing in his career? Does Brian Urlacher have enough left in him to lead a defense that needs to hold its opponents to under 20 points a game to make up for a mediocre offense?
Detroit Lions 3-13
I’m usually against teams starting rookie quarterbacks, but what other reasons do Detroit fans have to get to Ford Field? The biggest transaction made by the Lions was the firing of Matt Millen. They still have a way to go, but there is no way they could play as bad as last season.
NFC South
New Orleans 10-6
The argument could be made that Drew Brees this generation’s less glamorous Dan Marino. He puts up stats that match up with the best in the league, but has never had the defense to put his team over the top and win a championship. That being said, this could be the year Brees gets back to competing for the NFC championship.
Carolina Panthers 8-8
Julius Peppers returns to a dominant defense, albeit reluctantly. The two-headed rushing attack of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams enters it’s second season and the more you can keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands the better. Only the Dolphins have a harder strength of schedule than the Panthers which should keep them out of the playoffs, and could end the John Fox/Jake Delhomme era in Charlotte.
Atlanta Falcons 6-10
Congratulations on the Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan. Because of your great performance in year #1, the boys in the schedule making department provided you with road trips to New England, Dallas, and New York twice. Sophomore slumps happen to the best, not the elite, but the best. Nobody would be shocked in Michael Turner and yourself come back down to earth this year. Michael Vick comes to his old town December 6th, have him show you some of his old stomping grounds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13
Why was John Grueden fired again? Either way, Byron Leftwich gets a 2nd chance to start for an NFL team. Rookie Josh Freeman can expect to take over by December when Tampa is long out of contention. Sabby Piscatelli and Aqib Talib headline a young defense that will see plenty of action this year.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks 9-7
T.J. Houshmandzadeh joins Deon Branch and Nate Burleson as receivers brought in to provide a deep play threat for Matt Hasselbeck. Aaron Curry (rookie, Wake Forest) joins Lofa Tatupu on a defense that will bring Seattle back to the top of the NFC West. Seattle plays in one of the few stadiums that still provides a home field advantage. With foes such as Tampa, Detroit, and Jacksonville coming to the Pacific northwest, Seattle should use this advantage to have them playing in January.
Arizona 7-9
Since 2002, only two teams who lost the Super Bowl won a playoff game the next season. A young team like Arizona could take a step backwards this year before they get back to the pinnacle of the sport. It should be interesting to see if Matt Leinart is given a chance to start at some point in this season, because Kurt Warner can’t be expected to lead this team too far into the future.
St. Louis Rams 5-11
Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson could provide enough offense to pull a couple upsets and stay competitive. However this defense lacks the skill and experience needed to win enough games, even in a winnable division.
San Francisco 49ers 2-14
The NFL is in fact a quarterback driven league. Some how Shaun Hill ended up in the driver’s seat in San Francisco. Rookie Michael Crabtree is the only first round draft pick yet to sign a contract, leaving the 49ers with Arnaz Battle as their big play receiver. Frank Gore could run for over 1200 yards on the worst team in the league.
Super Bowl Picks
Pittsburgh has the only defense that can slow Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC. If the Eagles secure home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs I love their chances of making it to Miami in February.
This is Donovan McNabb’s year. Not only will he win the league’s MVP award but he will bring Philadelphia their first Super Bowl title.
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